Barring disaster in the final 24.6km Madrid individual time trial, the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe leader will claim a record fourth overall win and fifth Grand Tour title in six years on Sunday evening.
Rather than give his rivals one last test on the painfully steep slopes of the Picón Blanco summit finish, Roglic chose to keep his main contenders under control, and although he lost a few seconds to Enric Mas (Movistar), second place Ben O'Connor ( AG2R La Mondiale), his overall advantage over him reached 2:02.
On a day when Roglic proved to be in the best shape possible to finish after the Vuelta, where he wobbled on the uphill stages and was stretched to get the red jersey back from O'Connor, the biggest setback for Red Bull was losing at least three Slovenian teammates to illness The biggest setback for Red Bull was the loss of at least three of its Slovenian teammates to illness. But according to Roglic, it did not affect him and “now we just have to finish [the Vuelta].”
When asked if he felt the Vuelta was effectively won, Roglic was subdued but upbeat. Definitely, two minutes is better than five. Tomorrow is a big day, so we will see after the race if it is enough. We just have to give it our all tomorrow.”
Roglic's caution may be understandable given that Red Bull lost control of the Vuelta after O'Connor's devastating solo breakaway on stage 6, when he was ahead by five minutes. But after his third win on the summit of Montcalvillo on stage 19, Roglic finally ousted O'Connor, who had been riding for Red Bull for 13 days. And on the Picón Blanco, while his rivals effectively accepted O'Connor's overall victory and opted instead to contest the stage win, the Slovenian chose a more conservative stance and simply chased the other contenders to the summit.
“The last climb was tough, but really all the climbs were tough today,” Roglic said after the race. [Nico Denz and Patrick Gamper dropped out early on, then Gamper abandoned due to illness, and Denz finished outside the time limit. Dani Martinez (one of the key riders who assisted Roglic's attack in Moncalvillo) followed suit, while fellow climber Alexandre Vlasov began to suffer mid-stage and eventually finished more than 30 minutes behind.
Fortunately for Roglic, not only was he unaffected, but both Ineos Grenadiers and Sourdal-Quickstep were eager to take control of the more testing mountain trek, with nearly 5,000m of vertical climbing. In doing so, teammates Roger Adrià, Giovanni Areotti, and Florian Lipowitz were unaffected by their physical condition and set a solid pace on the approach to the Picon Blanco and its steep lower slopes. And then it was up to Roglic himself to deal with any difficulties.
The racers were not in the best shape in the morning. 'Luckily I'm still in good shape,' he said. 'It's not over yet, but it's one day, one big one less than yesterday. But tomorrow is GC day, so we have to make it to the end.”
On Sunday, the Vuelta returns to a time trial stage through the streets of Madrid, following the 2024 Tour de France.
“I don't know anything about it. 'I just saw it in the papers and in big books, so now it's a challenge. In Madrid I want to do my best in the reconnaissance and the time trial.”
But while memories of the Tour de France-like the Grand Tour, where the last time trial ruined Roglic's grip on the GC-are now distant, his recent experiences in individual races on the final day against the clock are far more positive.
At the 2021 Vuelta a España in Santiago de Compostela, he ran through the final time trial to take the final stage victory and the overall win. Barring any major surprises, Sunday's final stage of the 2024 Vuelta a España should have the same result for Roglic.
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