Matteo Jorgenson has named Remco Evenpole and the Belgian team as the outstanding favorite and strongest team in the upcoming Olympic men's road race.

Speaking at length on the Cyclingmolepodcast about Saturday's 272-km race, Jorgenson predicted an open and chaotic event due to the relatively small peloton, lack of race radios, and small number of riders on each team.

However, the American argued that the depth of talent on the four-man teams and Evenpoel's past performance in the long and grueling one-day event made it likely that Evenpoel and Belgium would be in pole position for the gold medal. Jorgenson also pushed Jasper Stuben as Belgium's dark horse, noting that Stuben, a former Milan-San Remo winner, had been in great form throughout the Tour but had mostly "flown under the radar."

As for his own chances, Jorgenson said he was in great shape. However, he warned that fatigue levels were unpredictable after the Tour de France, where he finished eighth overall, and that after three weeks of stage racing, he had never had such a rapid turnaround as he would do in Paris on Saturday.

"In my mind, I also see Lemko as the favorite to win this race. With their [Belgian] team, they can gamble a little bit and I see a solo rider winning," Jorgenson told Cycling Mall. [Jorgenson told Cycling Mall. 'His position gives him room to attack without hesitation. That's what I like most about him."

Jorgenson, recalling how effectively Evenpole moved away from the distance to win the 2022 Australian Road World Championships, said, "I see Belgium as the strongest team."

Apart from high-profile classics like Wout Van Aert and powerhouses like Taige Benoot, Jorgenson also noted that "most people would not have picked up on Jasper Stuyven's good form, even in the Tour de France. If they [the Belgians] don't win [on Saturday], it seems like an embarrassment."

Jorgenson predicted that fatigue would be a major factor in a race as long as the peloton, with nearly 3,000 meters of vertical climbing, small teams, and only 90 riders that did not allow advantageous riders to run out of wind until the decisive moment.

One consequence of the unpredictable fatigue levels was that it was unclear whether the major teams would try to keep a lid on the early breaks as they did at the World Championships.

"I haven't heard any discussions between the major teams. (Christophe) Laporte, Teege, and Wout were put on the team bus every day (Tour de France trade team "Vismaris A Bikes").

"The race could start really far out, starting at about the halfway point, and from there it will be a war of attrition, with perhaps a lone winner. But that is pure speculation.

Jorgenson himself reflected on competing in the Olympics for the first time and how important it is, saying, "It's a really special opportunity. It's a really special opportunity."

"I know how important the US is to the Olympics and how big it is. I'm going to go into it with the same feeling as I did in the Tour de France."

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