Moody's Investors Service, a U.S. rating and risk analysis firm, predicted that Wahoo would have "negative free cash flow of approximately $30 million to $35 million" over the next 12 months into spring 2022. This projection was based on declining consumer demand as 2021 drew to a close.
At the end of January 2023, Wahoo had fully exhausted its $30 million recurring credit facility (revolver) and this projection had run its course. At the time of the report, the company had $5.9 million in cash on hand, and was close to making payments not only on the $30 million revolver, but also on a $225 million principal loan.
Earlier this month, the company officially learned that it fell behind on its debt payments in April 2023. As a result, S&P Global Ratings (an American rating agency) downgraded the company to "D" from its previous "CCC-" rating, albeit with a recovery rating of 2, indicating that "substantial (70% to 90%; rounded to 70%) recovery is expected," and imposed a downgrade penalty on the company.
According to S&P's website, a credit rating of D is defined as: "Also used in cases where a bankruptcy petition has been filed.
However, Moody's did not immediately issue guidance. The delay reflected the fact that Wahoo had "entered into a repayment deferral agreement (a plan between a lender and a borrower who has difficulty making payments) with its first lien lender (the highest priority lender) for interest and principal payments" and granted a grace period of five business days to make payments. Since this grace period has also passed, Moody's has provided its own investor guidance following S&P's previous downgrade.
However, it is not all negative news for Wahoo. Every financial analysis has a thread that recognizes Wahoo's position in the sports world: in early 2022, Moody's stated that "Wahoo has a track record of successful new product launches and expects significant sales and revenue contributions from several new products and refreshes in the second half of 2022 We expect to see significant sales and revenue contributions from several new products and refreshes in the second half of 2022." At the time, market headwinds included "continued inflationary pressure," which was noted as "eroding consumer spending power." Also, the pattern of "a return of spending to categories that have been limited over the past several years" has changed.
With the added benefit of hindsight, the latest Moody's analysis goes even further. The rating agency again pays tribute, stating that "Wahoo benefits from a strong market position in the cycling and smart fitness product markets, supported by good brand recognition, product innovation, and high product quality."
Wahoo also seems to recognize that the future looks somewhat brighter, saying that "successful new product introductions, driven by consumer health and fitness trends, have led to a significant increase in revenue size over the past five years."
Unfortunately, despite the positives, both S&P and Moody's seem to agree that the way forward requires some sort of restructuring. Moody's is somewhat more open in its forecast, stating that "in pursuit of a sustainable capital structure, the company continues to discuss strategic alternatives with its lenders, and significant debt restructuring is likely." S&P, on the other hand, is more specific in its forecast, stating that any restructuring would result in losses to investors, but would result in a "substantial" recovery, as indicated by a recovery rating score of 2.
This analysis is further supported by a direct statement from Wahoo. When asked for comment, a spokesperson for Wahoo Fitness stated: "Wahoo has entered into a special agreement with the lenders under our long-term note and revolving credit facility to delay scheduled interest and principal payments. The credit agencies define a default as a failure to pay interest or principal, regardless of whether or not a prior agreement has been reached. With the support of our lenders and our private equity partner, Rhone, we are actively working together and moving forward to create a new capital structure that meets the long-term needs of our business. In the meantime, Wahoo is committed to remaining true to its mission of providing the best products and experience to our customers and building better athletes in all of us."
Outside of financial realities, market and competitive headwinds also continue, with S&P noting in its 2022 analysis that Wahoo will face "rising commodity prices and freight costs." S&P then explained that Wahoo is attempting to offset these challenges through an assessment of "price changes to offset rising costs."
However, as we now know, price increases were unlikely to be a viable response. Last September, Zwift introduced the Zwift Hub smart trainer, which significantly reduced the price of Wahoo's best-selling Kickr Core smart trainer. In response, Moody's, as part of its 2023 analysis, noted "increased competition in smart trainers, including alternatives offered at much lower price points."
As such, the current Zwift v. Wahoo case remains a significant open question. A final ruling date in this dispute has been set for April 11. So far, no court filings have been released, but a follow-up report on the case is expected in the near future.
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