As we enter September, the end of the season becomes more apparent. And with each passing week, the battle for a spot on the 2023 World Tour becomes more and more important.
This week, Israel Premier Tech is in danger of relegation, while Lotto Soudal is approaching the safety zone.
But beyond the points tally, the major developments concern the system itself, as the impact of COVID-19 is increasingly felt, with pro riders voicing doubts about fairness.
Meanwhile, a bigger cloud is hanging over Arkea Samsic as he was stripped of Tour de France points from Nairo Quintana due to a positive tramadol. The problem is that a final resolution through the Court of Arbitration for Sport could take several months before the 2023-2025 World Tour licenses are decided later this year.
Before we get into the controversy, the latest weekly rankings released by the UCI show that the bottom of the three-year ranking of 20 promising riders competing for 18 World Tour licenses is becoming increasingly difficult.
Israel Premier Tech and Lot Soudal currently occupy the bottom two spots, as they have for a long time, and will be relegated from the sport's top teams in 2023 if they continue in this fashion.
But the situation is even more alarming for Israel, which is not only in last place and not earning any points, but also faces the situation of not qualifying for the Parachute Prize, an automatic wildcard invitation to the 2023 World Tour race.
This luxury prize is awarded to the second division team with the most points earned in the previous season, with Israel losing out to Total Energies in 2022.
Israel Premier Tech, whose mid-season signing Dylan Theuns has yet to hit his stride, has dropped below 100 points in the past week, leaving them 1,063 points behind 18th-place Movistar. He is also just 800 points away from getting Total Energy this season alone.
At this rate, the team of Theuns, Chris Froome, Michael Woods, and Jakob Fuglsang will be in the second division next year, good enough to be invited to the World Tour one-day races, but not to compete in the Grand Tours or other stage races.
Lotto Soudal remains in the relegation zone, but the outlook is much brighter: he is having a strong season in the 2022 ranking, currently in 12th place, and has virtually assured himself a full entry in the World Tour calendar for 2023, while helping to ensure the safety
They are also in the process of securing their place on the World Tour.
They have added nearly 500 points in the past week, largely thanks to their breadwinner, sprinter Arnaud de Lee.
The 20-year-old neo-pro won the one-day race weighted Egmont Cycling Race with his team putting two riders on the podium, and his fourth place finish at the Bretagne Classic has moved him up to eighth in the 2022 individual standings.
Caleb Yuan won for the first time since the spring on the Deutschland Tour, moving him to within 300 points of the safety zone of Lotto Soudal.
Movistar, Bike Exchange-Jayco, and EF Education-Easy Post are all just 105 points above the bottom two.
Movistar is having such a terrible season that the bosses blame the points system, and they are steadily moving toward the danger zone. They have added just under 200 points in the past week, but their fate will largely depend on the Vuelta a España. If Enric Mas can defend his current podium position, he will have at least 575 points.
And that is where COVID-19 comes in again.
The virus has already forced 18 riders to retire from the Vuelta, including BikeExchange-Jayco's Simon Yates.The 2018 Vuelta winner was in the top five on Tuesday and, like Mass, was looking for one last podium finish He was. However, he will not be able to score points for his team. It is worth pointing out that Mas suffered a similar fate in the Tour de France.
In any case, the COVID-19 infection and its impact on point scoring seems to be an increasingly significant concern as we approach the end of the season.
Tao Geoghegan Hart of Ineos Grenadiers, who moved into eighth place overall in the Vuelta after the abstentions of Yates and teammate Pavel Sivakov, criticized the system on social media on Wednesday.
The British rider said it was "not right" that the futures of riders and teams should depend on such variable external factors and called for "solidarity" among the peloton.
But then, in response to a flood of replies, he deleted the post, saying: "There is no need to delete anything. But it is annoying to be personally abused and hateful. But it bothers me to be personally abused and hate directed at me.
As it stands, BikeExchange-Jayco has gained few points and dropped back to 17th place this week. EF, on the other hand, moved up to 16th place. They have collected 200 points in the past week, but have not won since the Tour de France and are very much in danger.
No one is involved in a podium battle in the Vuelta, but Hugh Carthy, Mark Padun, and Rigoberto Urán are in the top 20.
Movistar, BikeExchange-Jayco, and EF Education-EasyPost are the three teams in direct jeopardy, but 14th- and 15th-placed Cofidis and Alcare Samsic are not out of the woods either. They are nearly 600 points behind 13th-place team DSM, but look safe at this point after strong seasons in 2020 and 2021.
Cofidis had a bad week with nearly 300 points thanks to Jesús Herrada's stage win in the Vuelta and Benjamin Thomas' top 10 in the Bretagne Classic. They are still in 15th place, but the gap to 16th place is now nearly 400 points.
Arkea Samsic, however, has dropped a point since last week. That's because Quintana was sanctioned by the Tramadors, who stripped him of 455 points for his sixth place overall finish and other stage finishes at the Tour de France.
Quintana's points still remained in last week's rankings despite the news of his positive test, but were removed before the case was heard by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS).
The French team now has 14,667 points, only 30 points behind Cofidis. Furthermore, with Quintana not participating in the Vuelta, they could be dragged into the mire if they fail to produce fruitful results at the end of the year and the World Tour teams below them take action.
Also, Quintana's case would add significant complexity to the overall system and could create legal headaches for the UCI.
If Arkea Samsic slips into the relegation zone, Quintana's points could mean the difference between a World Tour license and a pro team license.
Quintana has filed an appeal with CAS, but no hearing date is currently scheduled until November. If Arkea Samsic fails to obtain a World Tour license and CAS overturns the UCI's decision (possibly next year), the governing body could bring a legal battle over the loss of the license and all the business implications for the team that would result.
If Arkea Samsic maintains its current position, such headaches could be avoided for now. However, while Bike Exchange Jayco has been wiped out by the spread of one-day races in its native Belgium by Lot Soudal, the team's home event, the Tour Down Under and other Australian races, where it has a points-scoring record, have not been held in recent years due to the pandemic The team is frustrated that the Tour Down Under and other Australian races have not been held in recent years due to the pandemic.
In any case, in a race that is becoming more tense and contentious with each passing week, it would not be surprising if things descend into further farce by the end of the season.
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